FASCINATING – AT 11:29 A.M. ET:  One of the great political games is to try to determine how popular a president is at any given time, and how that popularity translates into achievements...or failures. 

The pollsters, love 'em or not, are critical to these analyses.  Gallup has an interesting take on Trump, state by state.  From The Hill:   

President Trump has averaged a job approval rating of 50 percent or higher in 17 states since taking office earlier this year, according to a Gallup survey.

Trump has recorded a job approval rating of below 40 percent in the same number of states, however, according to the poll.

The president has had some of his highest approval ratings in the Southern, Plains and Mountain West states. His highest marks came in West Virginia, North Dakota and South Dakota, where his approval ratings were near 60 percent.

Trump received some of his lowest job approval ratings in states in the Northeast and along the West Coast. Those states include Vermont, Massachusetts, Maryland and California, where Trump received job approval ratings of 30 percent or less.

The results are based on Gallup tracking polls from Jan. 20 to June 30 that included interviews with more than 81,000 adults.

COMMENT:  Not shocking and not particularly disturbing.  Even though Trump won the election, his approval on election day, on average, was in the forties.   He always underpolls.  The actual result is better than his poll numbers.  I think some of his potential opponents realize that.  Even reporters might realize it.

Barack Obama spent a good part of his presidency in the low forties.  It was only toward the end that he began to rise again, possibly the result of some racial good will in the population.  But his policies were never particularly popular, nor did the public seem to have great confidence in him.  There was a hollowness about the Obama presidency, a feeling that nobody was home. 

One of Ronald Reagan's major strengths was the belief of most Americans that he would do the right thing for his country.  There was that gut confidence.  That's golden in politics.  It cannot be replaced, and often cannot be explained.  Call it spiritual if you wish.  It is one of the reasons Reagan is so revered by so many. 

Trump has not yet achieved that confidence.  It will come if he can produce solid achievements, can stay out of his own way, and enhance the connection with the American people that led to his November victory.  He is a work in progress, or a work in deterioration, depending on how you see it.

July 23, 2017